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Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.

When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.

To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.

The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.

It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.


财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图


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Sunday, November 14, 2010

[沿图观势]综合指数和新加坡海峡指数

综合指数本周再创新高,周三以1531.99点触顶,第5浪目标位(1535)已接近满足.
接着受中国与香港指数影响,周五以1499.81点挂收.全周下跌11.92点.
综指周成交量则增加61.7%.
在期货指数观察方面,11月期指周三至周五偏向做空单.
卖空者在大量出售空单,短期会继续下跌,
但抛售过度反会使做空单者空头回补,促使指数反弹.
这现象会在接来这周发生.

目前指数已进入第4浪调整浪,走了4个月的第三浪已经结束.
由于之前的第二浪(打圈部分)属于简单的调整浪,
预计这回的第4浪会是复杂的调整浪,目标点暂时还无法预测.
静待接下来的"反弹波"结束后才做评估.

指数短期阻力在1532,1515,1504
指数支持点在1488,1478,1465.
预计综指接下来这11月波动范围在1439-1572点.
周波动范围在1475-1524点.

大马股票市场宽度:
目前股价高于50日均线比列是64.1%
8月最高点在68.8%;9月的最低点在44.6%,
比例减少4.3%,周四一度来到70.1%.
周五64.1%,萎缩比列很大.

更细腻的挑选分析(均线必须保持前进势头),
股价同时高于10日均线和50日均线的股项比列是4.2%.
8月最高点在11.6%;9月的最低点在2.2%,1月曾经来到20.5%
这数据和前周比对大减4.7%,大部分股项都出现调整.
当这种现象出现时,似乎告诉大家市场已经降温,追涨买股的策略已失效.

由于周三是公假(前周错误安插公假,在此致歉),预计综指的反弹幅度不会超过1515点,
如反弹幅度低于1510点便恢复跌势.那综指的下跌幅度会更大.
接下来这周如出现反弹,是给还没止损或套利的股友出逃的机会.
而不是加码买入的时候,更不是趁底吸购的机会!

海峡指数本周继续跟随港指走势,周五以3252点挂收.
周五虽然大跌但全周依然上涨11.68点.
海指第5浪高点在3313点涨势,目标位置在3326点.
虽然目标还没到,但我还是认为第5浪结束.
主要是海指跟随港指走势,港指基本上已到位(走完第三浪走势).
海指的支持位比较容易以图形得出,如配合黄金分割率观察,准确度会更大.

海峡指数11月的波动范围在2933-3351.
接下来这周海指的波动范围在3181-3322.
海指短期阻力在3267,3313,3358
支持在3196,3166,3119.

海指和港指周五都没有在尾市回弹,加上道指周五也下跌,
预计周一,早盘会继续下跌尾市或会回弹.

美国股汇市方面,大家就看看图,在一分钟内大略了解一周市场走向.
下方的是S&P500指数,前周已经提过基本目标位已经达标.
指数已进入调整.支持区在1175-1160范围.
 

VIX恐慌指数前周走低,本周走高.显现市场的不安性.
整体观察,走势是受制于50日均线之下,走势继续向下的机会较大.

美国10年国债殖利率TNX指数,从新站上50日均线.
10年国债似乎失去吸引力.


垃圾债周一开始下跌,连跌五个交易日.50日均线会否再次给于支持?


新兴市场债,连跌五个交易日.
请留意MACD和RSI指标与价格走势是背离的,周五宣告失守50日均线.
债市全数跌,新兴市场债给予股友一个很大的启示.
新兴市场股指出现调整是吻合的,整个调整周期会比较长.


美元指数本周是上涨的,免不了是G20的关系.
MACD指标向上,价格横向整理.
美元指数有机会和日元一样形成"头肩底",由弱美元转为强美元.
欧洲债券危机再现, 投资者抛售欧元,改持美元,从而提振美元走势.

在图表看来,黄金的5浪结构已完毕.指标一样出现明示的背离讯号.



原油价格50日均线已和200日均线已形成金叉.
中期看涨行情已经成形,阻力在90.
保持上述观点.原油价格基本落后于所有市场的商品.
跌幅有限,再加上预期寒流来袭.油价还有上升空间.



3 comments:

  1. Hi, I came across your site and wasn’t able to get an email address to contact you. Would you please consider adding a link to my website on your page. Please email me back.

    Thanks!

    Harry
    harry.roger10@gmail.com

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