近期在金融危机新一轮冲击的影响下,各国经济体当局应对危机的举措呈现出新特点,包括实行定量宽松的货币政策、商业银行国有化以及强调公私合作等。
目前尚难判断美欧采取的应对金融危机新举措效果如何,但与之相伴的一些风险因素不容忽视。定量宽松可能造成货币贬值,银行业国有化将使不良资产处置难以预料。另外,市场与政府合作中的定价问题也令金融界甚感棘手。
首先,定量宽松货币政策范围扩大。从2007年8月次贷危机爆发算起,美联储的货币政策以降息和直接向商业银行注资为主。到去年底,美联储已经把基准利率由5.25%降至零至0.25%。今年3月18日,美联储开始再购买长期国债,并再次购入相关房产抵押债券和房贷机构债券。
所谓定量宽松,一般指利率接近或者达到零的情况下,央行通过购买各种债券,向货币市场注入大量流动性的干预方式。用特意创造的货币购买政府债券和企业债券,是希望能够降低贷款成本,有效改善民间信贷市场环境。在此之前,日本、英国和瑞士都在使用定量宽松的政策,预计加拿大和瑞典将紧随其后。
第二,商业银行国有化。2月27日,英国政府继续对苏格兰皇家银行注资225亿英镑。至此,英国政府已经拥有该银行95%的股份。同一天,美国在花旗银行的持股比例达到36%,实际上对花旗实行了国有化。紧随国有化的是对银行不良资产的处置。3月23日,美国财政部细化了针对银行业不良资产剥离的计划。
第三,强调公私合作。美国政府高官的近日的表态可以看出,美国应对危机目前开始从政府主导转向强调与私营部门合作。美政府意识到,美国经济真正的复苏动力在于市场,如果不让私营部门参与金融业救助,则最终效果不容乐观。美国财政部长盖特纳3月22日说,解决金融危机的惟一途径是同私营机构合作,消除银行资产负债表中的问题资产。政府不能独自解决这个问题。
此外,金融监管者开始考虑应适时改变金融业的一些基本准则。如金融危机爆发后,公允价值会计准则备受争议。美联储主席伯南克3月20日表示,监管机构可能有必要修改资本和会计准则,以确保其不会加剧金融市场波动。
金融危机中潜在的风险仍有多处。近中期看,美欧金融业“去杠杆化”还未完成。长期来看,赤字难题、美元危机以及金融危机过后很可能出现的滞胀问题都将使世界经济面临巨大不确定性。能够确定的是,稳定市场信心要靠政府努力,但救市的最终力量仍在于市场。
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.
When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
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Tuesday, March 24, 2009
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