美国财务会计准则委会通过放宽按市价入帐的会计准则，成为美股上周升四个交易日的兴奋剂，但周一已有分析师走出来向满腔热诚的投资者大拨冷水，坦言银行问题无远弗届，现时只是处于危机的中游，令银行股沽压沉重，亦中断了美股连日上升的势头。
美国上市公司首季业绩期周二由美铝揭开序幔，银行股业绩将于下周开始陆续公布。着名银行分析员韦特妮女士认为，受惠于新会计准则，银行季度业绩料胜预期，但她提醒投资者，可能会有银行未能通过压力测试，而银行要自信贷危机中脱困，料有待2010年中或以后。
证券商Calyon的米奥(Michael Mayo)发表报告指出，银行债务问题离结束仍远。他称，银行需要为贷款作出的撇帐，将会由现时的2%攀升至3.5%，超越1934年大萧条年代的3.4%，若情况恶化，撇帐率更会高达5.5%。以行业贷款7万亿计算，每年坏帐率将介乎2500亿至4000亿，未来三年则为6000亿至1万亿。
米奥在报告中同时指出银行业的七宗罪及三大问题，同时罗列出11家「跑输大市」及「沽出」银行的名单，前者包括美银、花旗及摩通，后者则有Fifth Third Bancorp、SunTrust及U.S.Bancorp。早于去年11月米奥仍为德银效力时，已发表过一篇预测接近的报告，新报告意味着美国银行的现况在过去5个月并无太大起色。
着名投资者索罗斯接受路透财经电视访问时指出，美国经济最快会在第三季停止收缩，并于第四季回复增长。他称银行体系及楼市康复对经济复元极为重要，可惜整体银行体系基本上已是资不抵债，陷于破产。索罗斯警告，拯救银行会令银行变成殭尸企业，吸吮经济的活血，延长经济放缓的时间表。另外，政府推出的公私合营投资计划(PPPIP)不足以重整银行资本，让银行恢复正常借贷活动。
不少意见亦认为，放寛会计准则只能治标难以治本，不但令市场对银行的财政状况扑朔迷离，对银行的资本充足比率投以不信任票，亦无助纾解银行困境，而银行不肯面对现实以「市价」出售毒资产，亦令PPPIP为银行清洗毒素的如意算盘难以敲响。纵使银行首季业绩理想，又是否足以令投资者对行业盈利前景改观？
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.
When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
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Wednesday, April 8, 2009
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