Google

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.

When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.

To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.

The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.

It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.


财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图


Live Economic Calendar Powered by the Forex Trading Portal Forexpros.com

Thursday, May 21, 2009

王冠一: 复苏嫩芽 慎变枯草

美国联储局於4月底的会议纪录中,把经济预测下调,并把失业率预测数字调高,对经济前景的看法明显较1月时悲观。消息导致美股的升势逆转,三大指数同时倒跌,惟跌幅尚算温和。

联储局调低今年全年经济增长的预测,由年初估计的下滑0.5%至1.3%,修订至下跌1.3%至2%。近期的数据显示经济放缓步伐已趋温和,但首季录得负增长6.1%,即使前主席格林斯潘指次季负增长可收窄至1%的预测準确,下半年又开始呈现增长,但要收复首季经济插水的失地,又谈何容易!联储局同时调低未来两年的增长预测,但仍预期可以录得正增长。

联储局预期失业率今年会升至介乎9.2%至9.6%之间,较1月估计的8.5%至8.8%高,只是面对现实的做法。最新数据显示,4月份失业率已攀升至8.9%,超越了联储局年初估计的上限,而根据近期走势,就业市场短期内仍将继续恶化。联储局认同部分行业的就业水平将难复旧观,失业率要回落至5%或以下,料需时不少於5年,而出口要重返高峰,亦需要一段不短时间。总统奥巴马周三与经济复苏问委员会16名成员会晤时亦坦言,失业率高处未算高。

市场最关心的,是联储局加大回购长债力度的意愿。联储局於3月的会议决定斥资3000亿美元回购公债,同时加码8500亿购买按揭抵押证券和包括两房发行的代理债券,令10年孳息应声下跌接近半厘,但上月底的会议却没有进一步动作,以致孳息冉冉回升,近日更已超越3月会议前的水平。会议纪录显示,部分与会成员仍倾向在公开市场购买更多的公债及长期证券,為经济加添动力。

虽然联储局主席伯南克近日指经济已露曙光,并以「嫩芽」(green shoots)形容经济初呈生机,成為市场热话,但会议纪录显示,部分成员认為,中期而言,一些因素会局限了复苏的步伐,信贷危机只可以慢慢淡化,美国家庭仍会对花钱维持审慎取态。他们更关注商厦问题一旦恶化,会令仍在与楼价下跌和按揭违约等问题缚斗的金融机构雪上加霜。

格林斯潘相信,在楼价止跌前,美国仍要面对可大可小的潜在按揭危机,金融危机不会随着借贷成本回落而消失,银行亦有需要筹措更多巨额资金。最新的新屋动工和建筑批文数字均创下歷史新低,正好反映楼市仍未稳定。嫩芽会否变成野草?投资者对经济复苏又会否过度乐观?高追股市,确实要步步為营,加倍小心。

No comments:

Post a Comment