The Market Knows a Lot More Than You Do.: November 2008

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.

When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.

To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.

The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.

It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.

财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图

Sunday, November 23, 2008

KEPLAND(回复ABEL)

KEPLAND基本上在上周五又再创新低(1.38).
股价在触低后回弹.目前预计的阻力分别是1.68<1.78<1.87.
10周ATR是0.46.可以预测接下来这周股价的波动范围会在1.96-1.04.
10日ATR是0.17.周一股价的正常波动区间会在1.67-1.33.
结合FIBONACCI的反弹阻力点和10ATR. 1.68会是较难突破的关口.
基于上周五,美国股市大反弹,预计会激励区域股市短占反弹.
对于已经在低位买入的股友,在阻力价之前出局是最适合的.
至于看空的股友可在相对强阻力的位置进行做空交易.
目前股价的走势依然处于下跌趋势对做空者较有利,如股友是选择做多(看涨)交易,那期限属于短线和短期.有利就要套,如持股量较大,可用倒金字塔方式在弱至强的阻力区分别套利.

上面股价的阻力和波动范围都有参考价值.依据个人的交易技巧和承担风险可安然获利.交易愉快!

Sunday, November 16, 2008

WILMAR(回复VIRUS)

WILMAR的短期反弹走势已经形成,但A波和B波的2个反弹波段并不强劲.
当前的的反弹阻力来自长期均线组的阻力,要突破关口并不是易事,需要多番尝试.
以下是股价反弹满足点评估预测.
2.98>3.37>4.00
B波的顶点价是2.91.基本上已很贴近2.98的满足点.可以见好就收.

VIRUS当前在2.70的价位被套.帐面亏损0.12.(4.5%)
股价10ATR是0.24.股价波段范围在10%范围内都还算是正常波段区.
是您的入场价不合适导致被套,但还在可承担范围吧.只要不破2.49那还有机会解套.
如持有此股让您闷闷不乐那就止损吧.
我这里给于一个比较简单寻找短期入场价的技巧.谈不上稳赚,但可以避免很多不必要的损失.

对于目前股市起跌难测,对于买入价的捕抓节奏很重要.在股价大跌时选择跌幅过大(超过ATR反围)的股项介入,股价大涨时可追涨,但在接近ATR波动幅度前套利出局.对于涨幅已超过ATR范围股项更没必要再介入.
例如10/11闭市价2.81,当时股价10ATR是0.24.
在11/11前,短期交易者心理要有个底.
以2.81为参考,可以预计的正常波动范围在3.05-2.57.而海指ATR是107.
如股市大跌而海指还处于正常波动区,那股友可以选择在波动区域的底部介入(2.57-2.58).虽然买不到最低价但至少是比较合理的入局点.
假如海指的跌幅超过正常范围,一般是不建议保守股友入场做交易.
ATR只是交易决策的工具之一.要常胜并控制风险还有很多细节需要考虑.