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Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.

When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.

To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.

The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.

It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.


财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图


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Wednesday, June 17, 2009

王冠一: 抽身而退 时机未届

為下月峰会作準备的八国财长会议(G8)顺利落幕。最令人关注的是,会后声明提及,随着股票市场复苏、消费者及企业信心回升,以及金融市场明显改善,有需要开始订定「退出策略」(exit strategy),研究如何从应急支出计划及银行救助计划中抽身而退,又要求国基会协助研究如何减少预算赤字及政府对金融机构的干预,当然大前提是要避免危机复燃。

G8一致认為,现阶段仍不是抽离应急措施的适当时候。法国财长拉加德认為,各国应该审慎从事,不要过早制订退出策略;美国财长盖特纳亦指现时退出刺激方案為时过早,但重申政府应确保财政在日后重返可持续水平,并透露奥巴马政府将寻求在2011年开始缩减预算赤字。

记得联储局主席伯南克曾经指出,即使採取的措施是為了应对衰退及金融稳定的威胁,但若不开始著手计划回复财政平衡,便难以维繫金融市场的信心。事实上,美国的巨额赤字已令主要债权国感到不安,中国寻求美国保证投资安全,俄罗斯更扬言会减持美债,改投国基会发行的债务,上周四更宣布已减持了100亿美元的美债,消息成為美债孳息飆升的导火线之一。

不过,身為美债第二大债主的日本,财务大臣与谢野馨上周五表示会继续买入美债,信心绝不动摇,言论适时為美债注入了强心针。俄罗斯财长库德林於G8会议中亦表示,短期内不打算大幅改变外汇储备的投资结构,进一步紓缓了外间对美债的忧虑。

面对百年难遇的金融危机及衰退,不少国家均被迫大洒金钱救市,即使保守如德国,去年预算接近平衡,赤字仅佔GDP比重0.1%,但今年财赤预料会高达GDP的3.9%,明年更会攀升至GDP的5.9%,高出增长及稳定条约规定上限3%接近一倍。由於德国於上世纪初曾饱受通胀煎熬,自然对通胀畏如蛇蝎,力挺及早收紧前所未见地宽鬆的银根。

纵使不少市场人士大唱经济已开始复苏,但从各国对收紧银根仍然口惠而实不至的取态看来,冠一对经济最多是已经见底,距离复苏的道路仍然漫长的看法,纵不中亦不远。到开始有国家收紧放水措施,便是增长风险小於通胀风险之时,届时大家亦有需要重新修订投资策略。

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