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Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.

When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.

To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.

The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.

It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.


财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图


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Wednesday, April 21, 2010

王 冠 一:领先指标 ,预示调整

美股近期气势如虹,若不计上周五因美国证监会起诉高盛欺诈事件而回吐125点子,道指已是连升8月,上周四更曾触及11189点的52周新高,即使计入上周五下跌,道指仍是连升7周。由於美国蓝筹成分股迄今公布的业绩普遍理想,市场洋溢着一片乐观气氛,但后市仍有多大上升空间,却是令人怀疑。

一项预测环球经济走势的领先指标─波罗的海乾贷指数(BDI),其实早前已出现见顶迹象。波罗的乾货指数主要反映原材料的未来需求,与商品价格走势约有1个月的时差,箇中原因是生產面对原材料的需求先行逆转,投机需求才看风转舵。这个领先指标的最大缺点是未有把供应面因素纳入考虑,但仍无损其测市的準绳度。

BDI於3月15日升抵3574的3个月新高,在BDI触顶后约4周时间,一些主要商品的价格亦先后升至近期高位,例如期油升至每桶87.09美元的3个月高位,铜价升抵每吨8000美元的17个月新高,而金价亦於稍后升至1169美元的4个月高位。期油与铜价於触及多月新高的同日见顶,而金价亦於 3日后见顶。

波罗的海乾货指数触顶后,其他主要商品价格约莫1个月时间亦先后见顶,并非偶一事件,同样情况过往亦曾经发生,信手拈来便有去年11月和2008年 7月,可见走势有一定的规律。商品价格若见顶,便反映经济可能高峰已过,譬如油价和金价近日便分别较高位调整了5%和3%,若其他商品亦呈沽压,股市随步调整机会便大增。

当然,在参考波罗的海指数时,亦有需要把其他可能扭曲数字的因素加入考虑,例如铜价於4月创17个月新高,据报是受中国因素所影响,但中国大量入货,却是囤积存货多於建筑周期的实际需要。中国正积极採取措施防止经济过热,近期频频出招,包括限制按揭成数去遏抑过热楼市、再三提升存款準备金比率、对银行贷款施加限制条款,以及加息如箭在弦等,再加上人民币升值呼声高唱,对经济,尤其基建及工业或构成冷却效果。

事实上,道指和标普500近期升幅虽大,却未算真正破位。道指周二收报11117点,上周四升见11189点的52周新高,但仍未升破2007年高位14278跌至去年3月低位6440后,反弹61.8%的11284点技术性阻力,亦未有升破200天平均线的11133。同样地,标普500上周曾见 1213点的52周高位,周二收报1207,亦处於61.8%反弹阻力1229和200天平均线1224点之下。如果未来数天仍未能乘坐业绩的顺风车一举突破阻力,短期内有机会回调,道指的下调目标為10550点,纳指则是1150点。

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