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Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.

When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.

To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.

The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.

It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.


财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图


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Friday, October 16, 2009

鉴证奇迹的时刻.......

预计综合指数10月份的波动范围1283-1120.
在目前马股偏高的走势下,如还有股友勇于入场追高.对于他们的勇气,我声敢佩服.

入场买入股票,时间周期和买入价是决胜率的主要关键.
股价多少才算高,多少才算低,多少才算合理?
这是非常主观的一件事,基本上有3类常用的方式,一个就是"基本分析"评估股票的价值,二就是"技术分析"通过图表和概率评估股价还有就是"消息派"不折不扣的盗听胡说.

我选择"鉴证奇迹的时刻"为题目,主要做个公开性质的试验,以图表和概率评估股价.我会在2009年的最后一个交易日再做个统计,看看回报率有多少.

当然在目前"价高市危"的情况下,我会设定止损价和目标价,以吻合我一贯的安全网投资方式.
如果股价跌破止损价或达到目标价,就会全数售出.
止损价为目前买入价的8%.
每当股价上涨,8%的止损或止盈就会往上移.


以下是在概率上,还有较大上涨潜能的股项.
是集合所有马股,以特定条件,利用软件搜索的结果.

PELIKAN
距离18个月高点还有68%.
目标价=1.84
周五闭市价为计算基础=1.57
模拟买入量=10张

YLI
距离18个月高点还有66%.
目标价=1.48
周五闭市价为计算基础=0.925
模拟买入量=9张

GPACKET
距离18个月高点还有63%.
目标价=1.25
周五闭市价为计算基础=0.93
模拟买入量=8张

SURIA
距离18个月高点还有60%.
目标价=1.96
周五闭市价为计算基础=1.38
模拟买入量=7张

MAGNA
距离18个月高点还有59%.
目标价=2.84
周五闭市价为计算基础=2.34
模拟买入量=6张

MAA
距离18个月高点还有58%.
目标价=1.10
周五闭市价为计算基础=0.78
模拟买入量=5张

BKOON
距离18个月高点还有58%.
目标价=0.485
周五闭市价为计算基础=0.32
模拟买入量=4张

MRCB
距离18个月高点还有57%.
目标价=1.75
周五闭市价为计算基础=1.38
模拟买入量=3张

LANDMARK
距离18个月高点还有57%.
目标价=2.00
周五闭市价为计算基础=1.42
模拟买入量=2张

TAMADAM
距离18个月高点还有55%.
目标价=0.79
周五闭市价为计算基础=0.50
模拟买入量=1张

在目前已不适合买入股票的时期,还做这个非常有挑战性的测试,
结果会如何?
这次的测试已经忽略了入场时机和入场价的重要条件.
主要是测试利用概率选股8%止损止盈的成功获利的的能力有多大.
只要测试成功,就算是菜鸟不会基本分析,不会技术分析,也不知买入时机和买入价,但在概率选股上得到完好运用,依然可以获利.
交易本来就是要越简单越好.
把复杂的事情变简单,这需要一定的智慧。
找到一种相对简单的投资方法并且从中获利,简单的事只要不断从复做它,滚雪球效应将会实现.


我们期待鉴证奇迹的时刻.......

 

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