金融市场近期的货币战争闹得热烘烘，刚结束的国基会年会，亦成為中美两国角力的平台，美国指责人民币升值步伐过於缓慢，令环球经济失衡，中国则反驳指美国带头印钞行量宽 (QE) ，美元的持续弱势，才是造成环球经济一片混乱的始作俑者。
国基会经济顾问布兰查德 (Olivier Blanchard) 致开幕辞时指出，全球经济要达致强劲、平衡而又持续的复苏，要视乎两大因素，包括内在再平衡 (internal rebalancing) 及外在再平衡 (external rebalancing)。前者是指先进国家重新倚赖私人需求及削减庞大财赤，后者则指美国及部份先进国扩大净出口，新兴经济体尤其中国则催谷内需。不过，布兰查德总结时指出，再平衡的进程及步伐略嫌过慢。
《金融时报》评论员沃尔夫 (Martin Wolf) 於其专栏指出，要达致再平衡，昔日高消费及高赤字的国家须缩小私人环节规模，返回 PIMCO 埃利安所指的新常态 (new normal)，而贸盈高企及投资机会眾多的国家则让其货币升值，并透过扩大内需，以抵销外贸减少的衝击。但以美国為首的先进国家实行激进的宽鬆货币政策，令其他货币纷纷升值，各国叫苦连天。
沃尔夫认為，现时两股势力正进行角力，美国希望通胀在全球出现，其他国家则试图令美国出现货币紧缩。他相信美国会成為最终赢家，因為联储局可以无止境地印钞，美国拥有无穷无尽的弹药，其他国家只能争取较佳的投降条件，例如汇率及本土政策上寸土必争。
从孳息及物价走势观察，美国正步日本上世纪 90 年代的后尘，联储局採取激进货币政策，包括把息率降至零及大举印钞，反映联储局為免陷入日本式的通缩，将不惜用尽一切手段，务求出现再通胀，亦不会关注措施对其他国家造成的衝击。
维持超低的的好处是有助理顺经济调整的过程，例如对资產价值起支持作用，股市升可產生财富效应，供款减亦可增加置业能力。对於负债重的国民而言，低息亦有助减轻利息支出，家庭及企业财政更充裕，可鼓励消费及资本投资，更可避免因节衣缩食而打击消费，令经济陷入债务通缩 (debt-deflation) 的边缘。
多个国家啟动印钞机，令更多资金四处流窜，抬高了长期资產价格，亦令一些不行量化的国家如瑞士及回报高的新兴市场為了热钱不断涌入而头痛。这些国家可以透过让货币升值、直接干预汇市，又或者加税或实施外汇管制，阻遏热钱流入，但后遗症多多，部份未若中国般有外汇管制的国家如巴西和南非便首当其衝，成為大输家。
货币战争乃不公平战役，各国形势比人弱，最终难免任由美国屠宰。
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.
When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
Live Economic Calendar Powered by the Forex Trading Portal Forexpros.com
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment