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Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.

When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.

To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.

The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.

It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.


财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图


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Sunday, October 17, 2010

[沿图观势]综合指数和新加坡海峡指数

综合指数本周走势虎头蛇尾,周五以1489.86挂收,全周涨8.45点.
综指周成交量则增加了10.16%.
在期货指数观察方面,10月期指走法是高抛低吸和11月期指成反向.
多空双方都在挣扎中,如失守1480点,视为空方主导走势.
指数有往下的危险.

前周有提过第5浪有可能是对等浪的预测.
事实证明不是,但走势框架依然属于第5浪走势.
继续保持波浪评估,第五浪的基本目标位在1535点.
第五浪结束一般以双丛顶或三丛顶做图形确认.
只要大势配合,指数调整不超过1470点,
短期内指数任然有机会再尝试1500点关卡.

指数短期阻力在1503,1516,1525
指数支持点在1480,1474,1467.
预计综指接下来这10月波动范围在1394-1532点.
周波动范围在1465-1514点.

大马股票市场宽度:
目前股价高于50日均线比列是59.4%
8月最高点在68.8%;9月的最低点在44.6%,
比例增6.4%,部分股项已有动作.
产业和种植板块主导热门股,短期操作应持有这类板块.

更细腻的挑选分析(均线必须保持前进势头),股价同时高于10日均线和50日均线的股项比列是6.6%.
8月最高点在11.6%;9月的最低点在2.2%,
这数据和前周比对微增1.5%,二三线股继续活跃.
下方放的是期指的一些重要参考资料.
有没有发现不寻常的地方?
海峡指数本周继续走高,周五以3204.27点挂收.
全周累积上涨50.92点.
第三浪的基本目标位3210点已经达标,会否继续走高?
只要继续守在10日均线运行,依然不可小看第3浪的强势.
3183点已破,3210点也破,下个目标点在3274点.

海峡指数10月的波动范围在2931-3330.
接下来这周海指的波动范围在3139-3269.
海指短期阻力在3220,3247,3275
支持在3146,3101,3065.

美国道指方面,美国拍债期对股市影响已经不大.
这点我观察了很久,而本周更是如此.
下图是美国10年债息指数图,指数开始筑底回升.
主要是市场预期,FED会出台QE2或其他的刺激经济配套.
大洒钞票,制造通货膨胀.通缩不来,债券就失去吸引力.
只要FED在未来日子开始升息应对通膨,就是确认牛市的来临.
目前很多细节都还未明朗,市场随时也会因不确定因素而变盘.
下方是主要债券基金股价走势图,2010年第4季的表现会如何?
对于想更快掌握美国道指或S&P500走势的股友须多加留意.
技术图可以和很多经济数据做一个观察确认.
有时间我会进一步,解剖S&P500指数的观察细节.
单一的图表技术分析已很难在市场生存,特别是发达国家更是偏向数据讯息,变盘和变脸一样快.

接下来日子我会专注在世界经济层面和外汇的研究,提升交易技术.
发帖数量会减,但好文章会继续转载.

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