Google

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.

When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.

To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.

The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.

It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.


财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图


Live Economic Calendar Powered by the Forex Trading Portal Forexpros.com

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

【转】恒指短期下跌浪重现?

两个技术走势指标啟示转弱
近期较多以技术走势作短期市况分析,以利投资者对投资部署有较高「质感」参考,无疑近月大市升跌成交均未见活跃,包括过去两个交易天只有460亿元与550 亿元低成交量,影响走势破线的可靠性。不过,昨天出现10天移动平均线微跌破250天线【图1】,而恒指收报20658点,较50天线20725点為低,亦微破自5月低位形成的上升轨道支持水平,如这现象在未来两、三天内无法重返支持位,再度下试19800点这主要支持位机会大,截至昨天反弹浪依然处於一底高於一底走势。
上述情况一方面反映早前提及的死亡交叉噩运未有消除,但在22000至18000点的上落通道亦未有跌破之虞,反映港股维持炒上落市格局,一再强调缺乏成交的技术指标啟示性要打较大折扣。当然早前亦指出一旦短期形成上升或下跌的趋向,持货者可配合升浪趋势持有,反之跌势成即多持现金减少入市活动,直至走势逆转再作部署,在上落市中持续这投资策略部署有其需要。

另一个左右短期走势技术因素,涉及美元与港股走势出现的明显背驰现象,【图2】显示今年第二季开始美滙指数强,恒指从高位22500点跌至 18800点,6月美滙指数见顶受制89,一直回落至本月初的80.5低位,又回升至昨天83.338,期内恒指亦高见21800点后又跌至昨天 20658点,下跌达1150点;这现象暂可解释為早前美电疲弱,显示市场估计美国联储局将加大量化宽鬆刺激经济。不过,最终只是把到期贷款重新投入购买国债,令美元反弹;因此投资者评估港股后市要好好注视美元去留作為主要指标之一。

增持现金迎9月

菲律宾不幸事件成為市场谈论焦点,未悉是否导致好友缺乏守关兴趣,各重磅股纷纷回吐,虽然内地A/B股有表现,后者再传出合併憧景,一度刺激港股反弹;不过,午后大市再炒全球经济增长放缓,外围无论商品与经济敏感类股份全线回吐,且看会否促使美国执行一次小型刺激方案為复苏缓慢经济打气。

事实上目前全球各国执政党均不愿经济為过往透支进行共度时艰的困难日子下,造成漫长的谷底浮潜闷局,港股亦在这环境下炒上落,早前强调大市难越 22000点以反映基本因素不振,近日淡友试图跌破20500点这心理关口催化止蚀沽压,且看会否利用下周一期指结算前进行掉期活动,在目前大市交投淡静下来一次杀好仓,炒业绩是反映过去半年经济相对有表现,市场关注下半年经济动力消减带来的影响,形成部分基金视炒业绩為好消息出货良机,增持现金以迎接数据上显示9月份多见港股表现偏淡的统计。

No comments:

Post a Comment