欧洲主权债务危机蔓延，欧盟与国基会於5月2日协议向希腊提供1100亿(欧元‧下同)贷款后，再於5月10日通过成立规模达7500亿的安全网，而有关细节终於在周一落实。除了由国基会出资2500亿外，餘下5000亿中，有600亿会由欧洲委员会提供，另外4400亿则会成立一家具特别用途的贷款有限公司(SPV,Special Purpose Vehicle)，在收到援助要求时发债，向有需要的国家放贷。
此家欧洲金融稳定机构 (EFSF,European Financial Stability Facility) 成立期為3年，由欧元区成员国按所持欧洲央行股份的比重持有，行政总裁将会公开招聘，并设立董事局负责管理。欧洲委员会与欧洲央行将派员加入董事局，参与评估成员国的申请及製订贷款条件，并由欧洲投资银行以合约形式提供包括债券管理及行政支援等后勤服务，并且会在收到成国求救后才发债。
為了确保欧元债券為AAA的最高评级，所发债券会由欧元区成员国担保，担保额為所佔贷款份额的120%，以紓缓投资者对一旦多於一个国家出现财困时难以取回本金的疑虑。各国财长亦会授权设立现金储备，作為额外缓衝，各国亦取得共识，若有需要时会採用其他机制辅助，确保EFSF所发债券的价值。此外，受助国家亦要接受与希腊换取援助时承诺厉行节约的相若条件。
虽然应对欧洲主权债务危机的安全网落实，但能否起稳定作用，仍待观察。欧元於安全网内容出台后未见回升，兑美元仍然受制於1.20关口，而近日欧债市场亦存有暗涌，焦点更再度落在西班牙身上。西班牙十年孳息於周一上升10基点，至4.66%，较欧盟插手欧洲危机及欧洲央行破天荒买债前的水平更高，单单过去一周，孳息上升了36基点，而自5月中至今飆升了70基点，较另一高危国家葡萄牙同期的60点升幅更多。由於资一面倒投向德国，德国十年孳息迭创新低，与意大利的孳息差扩大至180点，与西班牙的孳息差更升越200点子，同时创下欧元面世以来的新高。
西班牙的处境较葡萄牙更恶劣，主要是政治欠稳定，国会仅以一票之微通过节约方案，日后或引起示威暴动处处，反而葡萄牙的节方案已与反对党达成共识，掀起政治危机的机会较小。另外，西班牙未来有数额不小的债券到期需要滚存，本周与葡萄牙及意大利合共发行275亿国债，包括周四新推40亿三年债，而7月 30日前会有162亿债务到期，2012年前估计连同到期债务及填补财赤缺口共需3500亿。
欧元周二再度跌至1.19美元边缘，逼近周一缔造1.1876美元的4年新低，反映安全网未能平息投资者对欧元区财困的疑虑。欧洲多国相继推出节约方案，长线利好财政结构，但短期却可能会令低迷的经济更加举步维艰，投资者担忧会出现双底衰退，并非杞人忧天。成立新公司发行欧债，会否令财困国家发债更困难，出现良债驱逐劣债的后果，令更多国家被迫求助，导致危机加深？亦是要考虑的问题。
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.
When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
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Wednesday, June 9, 2010
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