评级机构穆迪上周把希腊主权评级连降4级至垃圾级别，但金融市场反应较预期温和，其中一个原因可能是焦点已转移至欧猪五国另一高危国家的西班牙。过去两周，不少欧元区国家相继发债，上周有葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利，本周二则有爱尔兰、比利时和西班牙，反应均见理想，但市场更关注西班牙今日发行的35亿 (欧元‧下同)10年和30年长债，是否同样能取得理想成绩。
西班牙上周拍卖3年债筹39亿，获超额2.1倍认购，中标率达3.31%，较4月拍同期3年债中标率的2.007%高出六成；本周二拍12个月和 18个月票据筹52亿，亦获足额认购；但真正考验在於周四拍卖的长债，市场是否投以信任一票，固然令人关注，息率会否大幅飆升，令西班牙不胜负荷，同样要加以重视。
近期有关西班牙财政不稳的消息层出不穷，上周数家德国报章称，欧盟与国基会拟动用7500亿安全网助西班牙度难关，而西班牙报章El Economista本周更言之凿凿地指，美国财政部亦有参与為西班牙準备2500亿信贷额度。其他报道包括西班牙银行上月向欧洲央行借入856亿，较 08年雷曼倒闭时多出1倍，亦是欧元区1999年成立以来最多。消息加深了市场对西班牙陷入危机的印象。
虽然西班牙财政部一再否认，称报道属子虚乌有，欧盟及国基会亦澄清，指未曾接获西班牙提出经援的要求，法国总统萨尔科齐及虑森堡总理容克又强调西班牙问题未有纳入周四欧盟峰会的议程，但未能释除市场疑虑。西班牙央行行长欧德内斯(Fernandez Ordonez)為了平息西班牙银行体系财政不稳的谣言，挺身表示打算在短期内公布金融机构进行压力测试结果。欧洲央行和德法两大经济龙头一向反对公开银行压力测试的结果，但芬兰表明支持，欧洲央行管理委员会成员默斯(Yves Mersch)亦转軚，认為做法可改善欧洲信心危机。
金融市场对西班牙危机反应迥异，欧元未因消息而急挫，周四更升至1个月新高，欧洲股市亦已连升6个交易日，反而债市及拆息市场外弛内张，西班牙与德国十年孳息差周三扩大至223.5基点，较周二升12.5基点，创欧元面世以来新高，欧洲美元银行同业拆息(Euro Libor)亦升见0.65875%的半年新高。
西班牙银行5月向欧洲央行取用1056亿，佔欧洲央行放款额13.4%，较99年至07年的平均比率高出接近1倍；世银去年底数字亦显示，西班牙金融机构今年有3930亿债务到期，与欧洲央行指欧元区20大银行未来两年要滚存8000亿长债，每周有60亿要续期比较，所佔比率亦接近5成。虽然欧洲主要官员大派定心丸，但西班牙银行危机是否严重，至今仍疑幻疑真。
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.
When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
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Thursday, June 17, 2010
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