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Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.

When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.

To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.

The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.

It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.


财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图


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Wednesday, December 16, 2009

王冠一:花旗富国及早还款 免受制肘

继美银於本月初向财政部偿还所有「问题资產紓困计划」(TARP)的欠款后,本周再有两家银行宣布退出TARP计划,先是花旗公布向政府偿还200亿美元TARP欠款的详情,而在美股收市前,富国亦匆匆表示已获财政部同意偿还TARP借贷的安排。至此,美国四大银行均与TARP划清界线,而财长盖特纳亦欣然宣布,為救银行所作出的投资,已收回逾75%,并為纳税人带来可观利润。财政部发言人透露,TARP投入的2450亿美元,已取回逾1850亿,单单今个月便收取900亿。

虽然种种数字显示,花旗的财政状况难以用「健康」二字形容,但花旗仍想尽办法还款,主要原因是急於摆脱政府向受助机构所施予薪酬方面的种种限制。花旗的投资银行业务规模不小,薪酬若受制肘,未能挽留及招聘顶尖人才,便难以与高盛及大摩等同业争雄。

根据安排,花旗将发行普通股筹170亿美元,若反应理想,筹款上限可增至255亿,另外亦会发行股权单位筹集35亿,以便向政府赎回透过TARP资金持有的200亿美元信託优先股,另外,花旗将於明年1月向僱员发行17亿美元的普通股,以取代现金薪酬,并在首季发行优先股多筹30亿,加强资本实力。花旗亦会终止与政府之间的3010亿损失摊分协议,并取消向政府发行71亿美元信託优先股当中的18亿。虽然行动会出现合共101亿美元的税前损失,但每年可节省17亿利息开支及5亿分期摊还支出,可算是除笨有精。截至今年底,政府投放於花旗的TARP投资,将可取得31亿股息及利息回报。

在花旗公布还款计划后,美国四大银行之一的富国,其后亦匆匆公布偿还TARP欠款的安排,包括发行新股筹集104亿,以及透过资產筹集15亿,以加强资本实力。根据第3季末的数字,富国的一级普通股资本比率只有5.2%,低於美银的8.5%和花旗的9.0%,甚至较业务性质最接近US BanCorp的6.8%為低。比率偏低,主要是去年收购美联银行后,為美联的资產大幅减值。今次决定发行新股,推翻9月称不想摊薄现有股东权益的说法,是為了满足官方的要求。盖特纳已一再重申,政府不希望银行偿还TARP后,会出现资本不足的情况。发行新股筹集逾百亿元后,富国普通股资本比率将会达到6.2%,令政府更加安心。

虽然富国一直声称,其投资银行及资本市场部门规模不大,即使薪酬受制肘,亦没有太大问题,但人才流失便难以在市场与同业竞争;在其他银行相继还款后,富国成為唯一未偿还TARP欠款的大银行,更加容易会被标籤,从而影响其品牌,令商银业务的客户流失至美银及摩通等对手,故匆匆公布还款安排,自然有其原因。

富国一直强调没有资金问题,更曾用「愚蠢」去形容政府的压力测试,称250亿TARP贷款只是政府强行注资,如今成為四大中最后一间摆脱TARP计划的银行,已令不少人大跌眼镜。

◎曹Sir金句
人人皆知掷银币最后结果一定係50%公、50%字。非理性投资者可以不断掷银仔,加上严守止蚀唔止赚,令赢面提升至75%;反之,理性投资者因担心输而唔掷,最后忍唔住手才掷,输的机会同样係50%。
 

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