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Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.

When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.

To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.

The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.

It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.


财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图


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Thursday, December 17, 2009

王冠一:风云人物 实至名归

联储局议息结果无甚惊喜,会后声明与11月那一份几乎一式一样,同样是指经济续有起色,通胀未构成威胁,亦保留了「维持低息多一段日子」这重要一句。新加入的内容,是加入了「劳工市场恶化已紓缓」作為补充,同时增添了会如期撤走临时放水措施的新段落。



在金融海啸期间,為了维持金融市场的信贷流通,联储局推出了多项临时应急措施,為金融市场注入了逾万亿的资金,虽然会上有人提出延长这些临时措施,但最终仍遭否决。这些临时措施会如期在明年初届满后撤走,反映联储局对信贷市场有能力自行站立具信心。

明年2月1日届满的临时放水措施主要有四种,包括资產抵押商业票据、商业票据资金设施、初级经纪信贷设施和定期证券借贷设施等,联储局亦会有其他的退市安排,例如与外国央行商讨终止双边货币掉期的安排。一些让银行竞投的信贷机制,定期拍卖设施(Term Auction Facility,TAF)将於明年初撤走,定期证券借贷工具(Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility,TSLF)方面,用新发行商业按揭抵押证券担保的部份会在明年6月底才完结,其他所有抵押品担保的则在明年3月底结束。

伯南克在联储局议息的同一日,获《时代》周刊选為今年风云人物(Person of the Year),表扬他能吸取大萧条的教训,力挽狂澜,成功避免环球经济陷入另一次大萧条。

不过,伯南克於参议院银行委员会审批其提名之际当选风云人物,时间上似乎过於巧合,当中是否存在不可告人的枱底交易,例如换取国会可以调查联储局过度膨胀的资產负债表,啟人疑竇。虽然不少经济学者力撑伯南克连任,指若不是他推出层出不穷的新招,经济不会与大萧条擦身而过,而是堕入深渊,但伯南克是否实至名归,仍属见仁见智,起码已有两名参议员表明会对伯南克连任的议案投反对票,包括共和党前总统候选人的麦凯恩(John McCain)及民主党的麦格利(Jeff Merkley)。他们认為,伯南克未能及早察觉危机,在处理危机时亦过度集中於救华尔街。

无论如何,伯南克再连任4年,应该不会有太大阻力,联储局亦不会在经济复苏获得保证前,贸然加息,因為伯南克已在不同场合表示过,美国於上世纪30年代出现大萧条,最大原因便是当时的联储局於经济稍有起色时,经不起外间压力而过早加息,以致经济再度往下沉。

伯南克是专门研究大萧条的专家,小布殊委任伯南克接掌联储局,可算是其任内最大的功绩,因為若由其他人担任救市大旗手,后果如何?实在难料。










◎曹Sir金句
赚大钱需要的环境,就係股价在合理价(normal range)之外上下摆动,情况有如河流在暴雨之后暴涨一样澎湃,但堤坝面临河水暴涨带来威胁,一旦崩堤便成灾。

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