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Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.

When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.

To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.

The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.

It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.


财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图


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Tuesday, December 1, 2009

曹SIR:政府主权基金无力还债

2008/09年各国政府负债上升45%;家吓全球政府总负债50万亿美元。下一个金融危机係政府主权基金无力偿还欠债,因为全球只有一个政府可透过印银纸减债,佢就係美国,其他政府唔得。越南政府上周宣布越南盾贬值3.3%(黑市价係18488越南盾兑1美元,即过去十二个月贬值12.6%,最低曾见19450越南盾兑1美元)。今年首十一个月越南出口跌11.4%,直接投资减少73%。看来越南经济几麻烦(2007年过热后遗症)。

纠正错误嘅正确方法係承认及改正。日本人死唔认错嘅性格係造成日股自1990年至今超级大熊市嘅背后原因。2007年10月开始嘅美国次按危机,联储局够胆向日本银行学习,先减息后採用量化宽鬆政策,企图掩饰过去所犯嘅错误,最后结果係点?担心好似家吓嘅日本,即年纪大咗、负债多咗。响美元贬值及利率只有0.25厘环境下,今年3月起联储局成功製造了一次虚假繁荣;至于呢段日子可维持几耐?相信连联储局自己都唔知。自印度央行吸入二百公吨黄金后,全球对美元信心正在崩溃。中国政府正逐步收紧信贷,例如要求银行把资本充足比率上调至13%(西方银行只有8%)及从8月份起逐步收紧信贷(去年11月中国係最先放宽信贷国家之一)。家吓美国政府总负债达12万亿美元,一年利息负担2020亿美元,其中1.6万亿美元响明年3月31日前必须清还。如政府发长债还短债,可令美国政府每年负担多400亿美元利息,呢个情况可维持几耐?家吓美国已有一千零七十万个家庭资不抵债(其中一半以上物业市价较贷款少20%),即明年仍有大量家庭面对破产威胁。

联储局透过低利率及美元贬值协助美国银行修补佢地嘅资产负债表及鼓励投资者去冒险,係今年股市上升嘅理由。九十年代日本银行亦曾经咁做,截至2007年10月,日圆利差交易涉及资金估计达1万亿美元,然后响去年所有参加日圆利差交易者损失惨重,继而引发金融海啸。今年起美元利差交易取代日圆利差交易地位,令不少投资项目升值90%(借入美元买股票、黄金、石油甚至债券)。美元利差交易把股市、金价及油价推到几高?事后先知,但要小心去年日圆利差交易事件重演(赚十年钱,唔够一年蚀)。自1971年美元同黄金脱鈎后,美元进入漫长嘅回落期。由1970年至1979年回落(共十年)后,1980年至1985年美元滙价係上升嘅(共五年),然后又再回落至1995年(十年),再反弹至2000年(又係五年)。从2000年起计,美元滙价又再回落至今年共十年。明年起美元会唔会进入另一个五年反弹期?

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