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Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.

When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.

To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.

The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.

It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.

财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图


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Sunday, June 8, 2008

道琼斯指数(DJI)简析


上周五,道琼斯指数(DJI)猛跌将近400点，创下16个月来单日最大跌幅。DJI的下跌幅度越来越大;远远超越上涨幅度.
在我标记粉红色圈范围下跌走势,DJI已给予走弱的讯号.但还未能完全确定跌势会否翻转上攻.在同个状况GMMA(标记粉红色圈),长期GMMA也还未暴露看跌讯号,当时还是排例有序.
就如正常状况,大跌后必有反弹,反弹给予我们参考DJI反攻能力有多强,而不是让股友入局(除了没有风险意识的投机者).
如何分辨强弱?用FIBONACCI测量便有概念了.大跌后的反弹还未能越过40%就已宣告再跌.这是很弱的反弹走势.
有了这些基本概率,我们可以说短期内看跌DJI走势,直到拥有强力的反弹能力为止.经过概率计算,比较可能出现较强反弹的点位是12032和11603点.笼统点说12000点是必须守的,也会有较大的机会出现反弹.如不辛的也守不主,那11600点就是下个满足点了.

现在再回看GMMA均线分析,在我打黄色圈的部分.大家可以对比一下.这可轻易看出短期交易者(红色均线组)已经看跌走势,而长期GMMA(绿色均线组)也变成了DJI的压力区(标记红色箭头处).这类技术状况,卖空者须留意.

如果周一,DJI出现反弹,强势的反攻需反弹超过200点.低于这个幅度一律视为技术回弹.

支持与阻力价参考
弱阻力=13136 弱支持=12176
强阻力=12726 强支持=11819
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