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Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.

When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.

Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.

To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.

The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.

It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.


财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图


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Tuesday, June 24, 2008

wilmart(回复learner提问)

昨天晚上忽然想通了,wilmar你分析的是大势,大势对momentum player 来说并不是很适用,你的看法呢?
股票交易方式很多.是swing trading还是trend trading都好.我们最基本的交易法则是顺应趋势.而不同的时间框架会有不同状况显现.时间框架分为超短期、短期、中期和长期,4类.
就看交易者自己如何看待风险和计划在那类时间框架内交易获利.
稳建型的交易者,会在认清楚中长线的趋势后,才来找机会买入股票做短期.
超短线型的交易者,基本上也要判断短期趋势是否适合自己的交易方向.显然中长期趋势在超短线就不那么重要.

所以很多时候,股友搞不清楚时间框架,也搞不清楚自己要在什么时间框架交易.例如:在一个时间框架买,在另一个时间框架卖。它是这样发生的。一个交易者以想要获取一个好的短线收益的想法买人一只股票。但是交易并没有产生计划的结果,交易者没有在短线所限定的时间框架内卖出。而是决定要持有这支股票成为一个中线的或者甚至长线交易。
如果你在一个时何框架内买人,那么务必在同样的时间框架内设立你的卖出点。例如,如果你基于日线图买了XYZ,务必使用日线图来设置卖出策略。记住每一笔交易应该有一个买人点和两个卖出点。那些用日内图表来交易的人尤其需要小心这种错误。基于5~15分钟图买入一支股票必须保证卖出策略基于5~15分钟图。中途转换成小时线或日线将成为否定的行为。因为每一次犯这种错误,都会使股友降低水平。一旦习惯形成,就很难改.


回归主题,WILMART在日线图表看来,已经找到支持点(4.63).
在中期时间构架看来是很健康的调整,回调幅度并没跌破4.50.
走势会否延续上升,我们先看长期GMMA,看看投资者意愿.
长期GMMA在6月后,并没提供明示上升意愿,反而是在进行横盘走势.
让股价波动的是短期交易者的交易举动.
预计短期的波动范围会在4.63-5.30.
只要股价有机会突破这个波动范围,那就更简易看出股价趋势是延续上升还是转为下跌趋势的阶段.

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