彭博截至8月从全球159,919个股市分析推介统计,分析员估计标普500盈利增长达36%的1988年以来最乐观水平;然而,建议「买入」的分析员自 1997年以来首次少於29%,建议「持有」美国、英国、日本及巴西股市的达54%的1997年以来最高百分比。
美股方面,建议「持有」的创71%高纪录,至於建议「沽出」的只為2003年的一半的5.1%。
股票分析员一般都有看好倾向,但在经济增长放缓、市民担心失业而不敢消费、信贷市场不振、忧虑双底衰退以及劳工市场迟迟未复苏等令人沮丧消息几乎无日无之的情况下,分析员建议「买入」的百分比跌至十多年的低水平,反映对股市前景并不乐观。
另一方面,自2008年开始资金流入股票及债券明显出现此消彼长之势【图1】,财经专栏及散户截至9月3日每周看好相对看淡股市比例仍处於平均较低位置【图2、3】,然而,标普500指数在各界看淡声中却出现大阳烛,而全球股市过去5天更罕有地全线上升【表】。
股市走势每每与大多数人的意见背道而驰.而股票分析员过往的成绩令人不敢恭维,他们往往被大市牵着走,相信美股这次要升到大部分人转而看好才再回落。
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.
When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
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Monday, September 6, 2010
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