市场本以為，小泽一郎挑战棺直人失败，日本干预滙市的机会更加渺茫，岂料棺直人於保住党魁地位后翌日，财务省却出奇不意地出招，把不少日圆追捧客杀个措手不及。财务省早前已连番警告会採取果断行动，但投资者不為所动，继续肆无忌惮地推高日圆汇价，美元於干预前曾经跌至82.87日圆的15年新低，市场又怎想到「狼来了」的故事会落实？金融市场往往虚则实之，实则虚之，信乎？
根据外电报道，财务省今次动用了约1000亿日圆进行干预，经纪则估计数额达3000亿至5000亿日圆，但相比起汇市每日成量的接近4万亿美元，可说是九牛一毛。虽然财务省表示干预行动未完，但除非日本成功说服美国假借纽约联储银行之手入市，干预必然会事半功倍，甚至陷入继2004年后另一次长期作战，亦说不定。
过去11年，汇市合共出现三次较大型干预行动，分别是2000年9月至11月欧洲央行入市托欧元、日本於2003年至04年首季入连番单独入市压抑日圆强势，以及瑞士央行过去1年多屡次入市阻止瑞郎上升，但除了欧洲央行成功令欧元见底回升，其餘两次干预在经过长期作战后皆锻羽而归，相信此亦是各国政府不敢胡乱入市干预的背后原因。
欧元於1999年面世后，遭遇信心危机，不少分析皆对不同背景和文化的经济体系要採用同一套货币政策的成效感到怀疑，以致欧元由面世时的1.18美元持续下滑，於短短不足两年时间已贬值了约3成。欧洲央行终於作出了首度干预的决定，联同美日两大央行携手撑欧元，欧元其后曾经滑落至0.8225美元，但欧洲央行再度出手3次，向市场显示决心，才成功令欧元止跌回稳。
日本财务省於2003年初美元跌至117日圆附近的4个月低位时开始入市，全年合共抛售了20.4万亿日圆，但未能阻截日圆升势，翌年首季更动用了 14.8万亿日圆，47度入市，其间美元仍辗转下跌至最低105.14日圆。日本政府鸣金收兵后，日圆反而强势收敛，其后更因套息交易大行其道而强势逆转。日圆过去两年回复强势，料与金融海啸后风险胃纳下降，套息交易大举拆仓有关。
去年3月当欧元跌至1.4576的纪录新低后，瑞士央行开始入市干预，经过长逾1年的作战，不但未能扭转瑞郎的强势，更损失惨重。瑞士央行於6月底停止干预时，欧元已跌至1.32瑞郎，本月初更曾低见1.2765，再创新低。瑞士央行埋单计数，干预行动令其蒙受了140亿瑞郎的汇兑损失，即使计入金价大涨黄金储备的升值部份，仍录得不少於40亿瑞郎的帐面损失，令央行於国内承受巨大政治压力。
从歷史角度看，单一央行进行干预，往往成效不彰，日本有需要央求欧美央行参与干预行动。但由於欧美多国不断指责中国操纵汇率，正施压迫使人民币加快升值步伐，加上强日圆对本身出口竞争力更有利，权衡轻重后，欧美更不会轻易向日本伸出援手。日本孤掌难鸣，要扭转日圆强，又岂是易事？
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective.
When buying stocks, if your buying decisions are based on"insiders' information or rumours" and not sound analysis, then you are gambling. Many investors enter the market when stocks prices are high (lacking of confidence to enter beforehand when prices were low). Once the stocks market crash, they tend to sell out their shares out of fear and pessimism, swearing to "chop off their fingers" and never enter the stocks market again. If such situation happens, all their previous gains may be wiped out and suffered a loss.
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
Investing is an art and highly emotional and subjective. Subjectivity is largely controlled by our emotions. There are times when we are optimistic or pessimistic. If we are unable to control our emotional weakness, we are unlikely to become successful investors.
To be successful, you must first understand yourself, in particular your emotions and the degree of pressure you can tolerate.
The investors should also analyse the country's economic prospects together with the earnings outlook of the major listed companies.
It is imperative that you like Mathematics as the sound mathematical knowledge plays a key role in investment.
财富為了实现梦想;而非梦想拥有财富 .
美元对亚洲货币走势图
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Thursday, September 16, 2010
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